原文轉錄自：The Wall Street Journal

http://hpb.online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424052748704204304574545031142579474-lMyQjAxMDA5MDIwMDEyNDAyWj.html



The Rising Yen is Sinking Japan 

Currency appreciation is exposing the new government's ineptitude.



日圓升值弄沉日本

貨幣升值正暴露日本政府的顢頇



補充:

這篇外電呼應了我們日前對於日圓升值相關衝擊的看法  http://www.wretch.cc/blog/izaax/13168970

特此轉錄與翻譯和大家分享!





By JESPER KOLL

The U.S. dollar's decline has created upward pressure on many major Asian currencies, not least the yen, which is up 20% versus the dollar since the September 2008 Lehman shock. The new Democratic Party of Japan-led government argues this trend is a boon, but in fact it's just the opposite: The rising yen is a significant contributing factor to the sinking of the world's second-largest economy.



美元貶值營造了眾多主要亞洲貨幣的升值壓力，日圓也不例外，從2008年九月雷曼事件衝擊以來，兌美元已經升值了2成。日本的民主黨新政府宣稱這是個利多，但事實上剛好相反：強勢日圓正是這個世界第二大經濟體衰退的重要原因。

Japan is once again in a deflationary spiral, as the Bank of Japan is expected to announce today. Markets for goods, services, labor and capital are registering across-the-board, accelerated price declines. Consumer prices fell 2.3% in September compared to the previous year—the seventh straight month of decline. Producer prices show a similar trend. Land prices are falling at a double-digit rate. Wages are also falling, while unemployment is rising. Little wonder Japan`s broad-based TOPIX stock market index is now the only major developed-country stock market that is in negative territory this year. 



日行今天發表的數據將顯示，日本再度陷入通縮循環。各層面的商品、服務、勞動與資本市場顯示價格下跌已加速。和前一年相比。九月份的消費物價下跌了2.3%---這已是連續七個月的下跌。生產者物價亦顯示類似的趨勢。地價則是雙位數的下跌。失業率的提高的同時，薪資卻是下降。這就不難想見日經指數成為所有已開發國家中，今年以來唯一股市投資報酬率仍為負值的國家。

In response, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's government has argued that a strong yen could be good for Japan because it should help reallocate resources away from exporters to domestic services. What's more, Mr. Hatoyama's team floated the idea in October that a strong yen could help stimulate domestic demand—long a weak spot of Japan's export-dependent economy. (U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, by the way, concurs; in Tokyo last week, he said Japan showed "early signs of a stronger domestic demand-led economy."



對此，鳩山政府宣稱強勢日圓有益日本，因為它有助於「資源重配」---從出口商移至國內服務業。此外，鳩山團隊於十月時提出其觀點:強勢日圓可以刺激「內需」---這長期以來皆是日本這出口依賴國的弱點。(美財政長蓋特納上週於東京亦表示贊同，他說日本經濟顯示「強勁內需驅動型經濟的早期徵兆」。)

The idea that a strong currency has benefits has merit, but only in a growing economy. When an economy is expanding, a strengthening currency encourages manufacturers to invest in more productive machinery, focus on raising productivity, and remain on the competitive edge of their industry. It is an elegant economic tool that keep corporate leaders from getting complacent, and forces them to innovate. This is what happened in the 1960s and 1970s, when Japan was exporting its way to prosperity.



「強勢貨幣有益」的看法有其中肯之處，但僅適用於成長型經濟體。當經濟正在擴張的同時，貨幣走強將鼓勵製造商投資更具生產力的製程，聚焦於提高生產力，並持續保持產業中的競爭優勢。這(強勢貨幣)是個精妙的經濟工具---用以迫使領先企業不自滿，持續創新。60和70年代的日本正是如此，那時日本以出口換取了繁榮。

However, this cycle is virtuous only when companies make money, when cash flow is healthy, and when banks are willing lenders. Japan today doesn't enjoy such a benevolent economic clime. Prices are falling and profits are plunging. Yen strength in this environment is suffocating big exporters like Nissan, which has frozen hiring in Japan until further notice, and Sony, which has slashed thousands of jobs to cope. And remember, the current cyclical deterioration comes on top of a decade-long spell of almost no economic growth. Industrial companies are investing outside Japan to find growth markets, as are service companies like retailers, outsourcers and Internet firms.

但是，只有在企業賺錢，資金流動正常，且銀行樂意借貸的情況下，上述循環才能奏效。現今日本並不享有如此善意的經濟氣候。價格正在下跌，盈利正在縮水。這種環境下的強勁日元正在扼殺大型出口商如日產(已無限期凍結新增雇員計畫)和新力(為因應日圓升值衝擊已裁減數千職位)。更別忘了，當前的循環性衰退承繼於過往十年的經濟零增長上，工業廠商及至於服務業廠商(如零售商，外包商和網路公司)因而投資日本以外地區---尋找更具成長性的市場。



When a country is in deflation, like Japan is today, a strong currency must be countered by more stimulative fiscal, monetary or regulatory policies—or some combination of all three. The DPJ government is advocating just the opposite tack. Since taking office in October, Mr. Hatoyama's team has floated tighter financial-sector regulations, tighter fiscal policy in the form of smaller budgets, and an early exit from the Bank of Japan's super-loose monetary policy, known as quantitative easing. The budget cuts in the 2010 budget are poised to drag down GDP by almost 2% as Mr. Hatoyama's firstbudget follows on from his predecessor's massive emergency spending enacted last summer. As if this is not deflationary enough, add yen strength to the equation, and Japan's recession may soon turn into a full-fledged depression. 



當一個國家(如今日日本)陷入通縮，強勢貨幣必須搭配更具刺激性的財政、貨幣或監管政策---或三者並用。但日民主黨政府卻支持了相反的行動。自從10月取得政權來，鳩山團隊推出更嚴格的財金監管，更限縮的財政政策(體現在縮小的預算規模)以及提早結束日行的超寬鬆貨幣政策---也就是所謂的「量化寬鬆」。相對於前任首相於夏季提出的巨額緊急支出，鳩山的2010年預算刪減估計會拉低整體GDP幾近兩個百分點。日新政府似乎嫌這樣還通縮的不夠一樣，現在又把強勢日圓搬上檯面，那麼，日本的經濟「衰退」或許很快會成為成熟的經濟「蕭條」。

Japan doesn't need a stronger yen. Japan needs deregulation of its labor and capital market, privatization of state-owned industries, and a more pragmatic, progrowth domestic industrial policy focused on excising vested interests and the rigidities of domestic service industries. The promotion of growth and entrepreneurship is the only way to generate the kind of employment that the DPJ promised on the campaign trail. Unfortunately, this kind of policy path is particularly difficult for Mr. Hatoyama's government, which is heavily reliant on labor unions for political support.



xyz軟體補給站 日本不需要強勢日圓。日本需要鬆綁其勞動和資本市場，國營事業民營化和更貼近實際能促進國內成長需求的產業政策(聚焦於優惠利率運用和僵化的國內服務產業)。促進成長和創業家精神，是製造出如民主黨在選戰中宣稱之就業機會的唯一方式。這政策對於鳩山政府來說無寧是個格外困難的途徑，因為其政權相當仰賴工會的支持。 

That may be the one virtue of the rising yen and the destruction it wreaks: It is exposing the ineptitude of the Hatoyama administration's economic policies. The question is, how high a price will Japan pay in the meantime?



或許日圓升值 和其衍生的破壞不全是壞事，至少我們學到一點，它暴露了鳩山政府的經濟政策的顢頇。問題是，日本到底得為此付出多大的代價呢?

Mr. Koll is president of Tantallon Research Japan. This article is part of an occasional series on the dollar's impact on Asia-Pacific economies. 







izaax
xyz軟體補給站


xyz 免責聲明

此評論所包含之資料及意見僅供參考，任何瀏覽網站的人士，須自行承擔一切風險，本評論不負擔盈虧之法律責任。